CPI Panels
CPI panel family 解释通胀发布前已知什么、哪些官方数据已经发布，以及哪些周边宏观驱动可能影响 Polymarket 的 inflation、Fed 和 growth markets。目标不是替代 BLS、FRED 或 Cleveland Fed 数据，而是把这些来源放进操作员仪表盘，让 actuals、forecasts、nowcasts、market context 和 source health 可以在一个地方阅读。
CPI 覆盖包含什么
polyData 将 CPI intelligence 分成 release timing、event estimates、official actuals、component pressure 和 related macro driver panels。这很重要，因为计划中的 CPI event 在发布前可能有 forecast values，发布后才有 actual values，同时还需要前期官方分项数据，以及 energy、food、shelter、labor、rates 和 growth indicators 带来的市场影响。
| 层 | 包含内容 | 出现位置 |
|---|---|---|
| Release schedule | 即将发布的 CPI event、reference month、release time 和 countdown。 | CPI 发布指挥面板 |
| Forecast and nowcast | 可用时展示 Cleveland Fed 对 CPI 与 PCE buckets 的 nowcast values。 | CPI Release Command, Inflation Nowcast |
| Official actuals | 最新 BLS/FRED CPI series values、previous values，以及官方发布时间后的 released actuals。 | CPI Release Command, CPI Components |
| Component pressure | Energy、gasoline、diesel、food、shelter、goods 和 services pressure rows。 | CPI Components, Food, Energy, Shelter |
| Macro drivers | Goods、tariff、labor、services、Fed、rates、growth 和 recession-risk rows。 | Goods / Tariff, Labor / Services, Fed / Growth Risk |
| Source health | Coverage counts、source count、row count、cache mode 和 degraded source flags。 | All CPI registry panels |
数据源
CPI panels 使用公开宏观来源和 seed caches。一个值可能是 official、forecast、nowcast 或 registry context，因此 panel 会显示 source labels 和 metadata，而不是把每个数字都当成同一种事实。
| 来源 | 用途 | 数据类型 |
|---|---|---|
| BLS / FRED CPI series | CPI actuals、previous values、index levels、month-over-month、year-over-year 和选中的 component rows。 | Official historical data once released. |
| BLS calendar | CPI release timing、reference period 和 scheduled release time。 | Official release metadata. |
| Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting | CPI and PCE nowcast values before official release. | Model nowcast, not an official actual. |
| EIA | 用于 headline CPI context 的 energy、gasoline、diesel 和 WTI pressure。 | Official energy data and market context. |
| Federal Reserve / Treasury / BEA / FRED | Fed reaction, yield-curve, growth, demand, and recession rows. | Official public macro series and calendar context. |
| Federal Register | Tariff, import, and policy events that can affect goods prices. | Official public policy events. |
| Redis seed / SQLite seed | Runtime snapshots served quickly to the dashboard. | Cache mode, not a separate data source. |
CPI 发布指挥面板
cpi-release-command-center 是下次 CPI 发布的事件面板。它组合 release calendar data、nowcast 或 forecast data，以及事件结束后的 official actual series。发布前，panel 可以显示 forecast 或 nowcast，而 actual 字段保持为空；到达官方发布时间后，panel 可以从 BLS/FRED series 填充 actual values。
| 字段 | 含义 | 重要说明 |
|---|---|---|
| Actual | Official released value when available. | 发布前显示为空；官方公布前 actual 为空是预期状态。 |
| Forecast | Panel forecast source, usually Cleveland Fed nowcast where mapped. | This is an estimate, not an official BLS actual. |
| Previous | Prior official value or latest known value depending on release state. | Useful for surprise calculation after actuals arrive. |
| Surprise | actual 减 forecast；适用时以百分点显示。 | Only meaningful after actual and forecast are both present. |
| Reference period | The CPI month the release refers to. | Example: a June event may reference May CPI. |
| Hours to event | Countdown to official release time. | Used to separate scheduled, live, and released states. |
CPI 分项
cpi-components-pressure-registry 解释通胀篮子的哪些部分正在形成压力。它将 energy、food、shelter、goods 和相关 CPI component rows 聚合到一个 registry 中；每行展示 value labels、change labels、source labels、age labels，以及 hot、cool、watch 或 neutral 等 tone。
| 分项区域 | 示例 | 如何解读 |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | WTI, gasoline, diesel, EIA weekly indicators. | Energy shocks 可以快速推动 headline CPI，并影响 inflation-market probabilities。 |
| Food | Food at home, food away from home, food CPI components. | Food rows 解释仅靠 headline CPI 不一定能看出的 basket pressure。 |
| Shelter | Rent and owners-equivalent-rent proxies. | Shelter is sticky and often matters most for core CPI interpretation. |
| Goods | Goods CPI, nondurables, apparel, imports, tariff-linked rows. | Goods rows connect supply pressure and policy changes to CPI risk. |
| Services | Services CPI, labor-related services pressure, wage context. | Services rows help judge core and Fed-reaction risk. |
CPI 驱动 Panels
CPI registry 还暴露 focused driver panels。它们不全是 CPI actuals，而是 macro context panels，用来解释 CPI 或 Fed markets 为什么可能移动。
| Panel | Panel ID | 补充内容 |
|---|---|---|
| Goods / Tariff | goods-tariff-supply-watch | Goods inflation、import-price、tariff、supply-chain 和 Federal Register policy context。 |
| Labor / Services | labor-services-inflation-monitor | Labor-market, wage, claims, unemployment, and services CPI pressure. |
| Fed / Growth Risk | fed-reaction-growth-risk-board | Fed calendar、rates context、yield-curve spread、growth demand、sentiment、industrial production 和 recession-risk rows。 |
| Food & Retail Basket | food-retail-basket-pressure | Food and retail-basket CPI pressure from official component data. |
| Shelter / OER | shelter-rent-oer-pressure | Rent and owners-equivalent-rent pressure for core CPI markets. |
| Energy & Gasoline | energy-gasoline-shock | Energy-price shock monitor for headline CPI sensitivity. |
实际值、预测、Nowcast 与缓存
CPI 系统按角色标记数据，避免把发布前 nowcast 当作 official actual，也避免把 cached runtime snapshot 当作新的数据源。
- Actual 指来自 BLS/FRED 或其他官方公开来源的已发布数值。
- Forecast 指发布前使用的估计值，目前主要从 Cleveland Fed nowcast registry 映射 CPI/PCE buckets。
- Nowcast means a live model estimate, not an official number.
- Previous 指作为基准使用的前一个官方值或最新已知值。
- Redis seed 和 SQLite seed 指用于加速仪表盘的 cached snapshots；row source 仍会标识真实 upstream source。
- Coverage 统计该 panel 有多少 upstream source checks 可用；它是 source health，不是 CPI 发布次数。
Runtime 字段
大多数 CPI registry rows 共享同一套 runtime schema，使前端可以一致渲染。
| 字段 | 含义 | 示例 |
|---|---|---|
| value | Raw numeric level or event value. | 0.41 |
| valueLabel | Formatted display value with the correct unit. | 0.41pp |
| change | Raw change used for ranking and display. | 0.03 |
| changeLabel | Formatted change label. | +0.03pp for a spread, -6.57% for a percentage change. |
| unit | Value unit such as percent, index, dollars, or percentage points. | pp, idx, % |
| metadata.rawChange | Original source-level change before display formatting. | Used so spread rows display as percentage-point deltas. |
| metadata.rawChangePct | Original percent change when available. | Preserved for context but not used for unit=pp display. |
| tone | Panel classification for the row. | hot, cool, watch, neutral |
| source | Human-readable upstream data source. | FRED CSV / public macro series |
| cacheMode | Runtime delivery mode for the whole panel. | redis-seed, sqlite-seed, composed-seed |
API Panel ID
仪表盘通过 runtime panel API 请求 CPI registry panels。典型查询使用下面这些 panel ids。
/wm-api/runtime/panels?ids=cpi-release-command-center,cpi-components-pressure-registry,goods-tariff-supply-watch,labor-services-inflation-monitor,fed-reaction-growth-risk-board调试 payload 或对照 live dashboard 检查文档时使用这些 ids。